Welcome to TechnicalForecasting.com. I started writing this blog to help me order my thoughts on moves in global markets. I am a great believer in technical indicators for predicting price movements, but also understand the important of fundamental economic data. Over time writing this blog has helped me formulate trading strategies and develop my views on the economy.
I welcome feedback and comments, so please feel free to agree or disagree with me as you see fit. I look forward to hearing from you,
Ben
28th January -- Taking a break
28 January 2010 - 12:24PM
Dear Readers,
I am taking a break from blogging for the next 6 weeks, while I move abroad. Once I am settled, I will pick up again.
It has certainly been a very interesting start to the year. Hopefully by the time I return we will know more about Obama's plans for overhauling the banking system. This remains the critical issue facing the economy 18 months on since Lehman failed.
Article Tools :17th December Planning for Sterling weakness in 2010
17 December 2009 - 02:37PM
I've been keep a close eye on Sterling's movement over the last couple of weeks.
Last week's Pre-Budget Report (or was that "Pre-Election" Report) gave us the latest warning sign of trouble ahead. Even with an election a mere 6 months away, Alastair Darling was forced to admit the extent to which public spending will be slashed in the coming years. I didn't see the point in writing about any of this as there wasn't really anything new here.
Tags: bail-out, Bank of England, Britain, Federal Reserve, Financials, General Election, MPC, Quantitative Easing, Sterling, TARPArticle Tools :30th November The Dubai Jitters
30 November 2009 - 06:44PM
The news that Dubai World (essentially the management company of Dubai) was going to seek an extension to credit terms was treated as being tantamount to a default by investors internationally and has generated a storm of media coverage. While I don't believe this is going to be the catalyst for a sustained Global sell-off in stocks this event does raise yet more questions about market belief in the "recovery".
Although the announcement did spark a short-term collapse in stocks and other financial asset classes, prices stabilised fairly quickly and have started to return to the previous highs. This can easily be explained by the fact that the "news" from Dubai cannot have come as much of a surprise. Even the most passive observer of Dubai's growth cannot have failed to have recognised that the situation there was a classic bubble and was bound to cause problems. While the U.A.E. is oil-rich, the extent to which debt was used to drive Dubai's growth was always likely to make it a victim of the Credit Crisis and ensuing Global downturn. This was just another bubble that had to burst one day.
Tags: credit crisis, Default, Dubai World, February 2007 sell-off, Government Debt, Iceland, Interest Rates, StocksArticle Tools :